UFC 230 - Betting Odds and Predictions

The UFC makes it's return to Madison Square Garden on November 3rd for UFC 230 headlined by Daniel Cormier vs. Derrick Lewis.

This isn't the flashiest card from a fans perspective, especially considering that pay per view cards at Madison Square Garden are usually reserved for tent pole events. But there are a few action fighters competing on the card that should make things fun.

It's not the greatest card from a gambling perspective either - there are only two fights that are under the -250 range. The two things I generally look for with odds like this are parlay opportunities and overvalued favorites so I can fire back on the underdog. I'm not seeing a whole lot of the latter, but let's jump into it and get some money down.

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Chris Weidman (-170) vs. Jacare Souza

Apart from the stylistic match up here, there are a couple of factors that come to mind when analyzing this fight. First, Weidman hasn't fought since July 2017. I'm a believer that ring rust is very real in the fight game and a year and a half off from competition isn't a good thing. The other factor is questioning just how shot Jacare is. He's approaching 40 years of age and has had over 30 fights in his career. There's no doubt that Jacare is past his prime, but there are questions about just how over the hill he is.

From a technical perspective it's no secret that Jacare does his best work from top position on the ground. His striking is adequate, but leaves a little bit to be desired.

Weidman is a meat and potatoes but effective striker. He works nicely behind a jab and mixes in his all American wrestling effectively. Even if he is unlikely to get a takedown, he'll feint a shot to get his opponents thinking about it which is a simple but surprisingly rare skill in today's MMA.

Pace has always been a concern for Jacare, who is more of a sprinter than a marathon runner, and I expect Weidman to make Jacare work. I see this fight mostly contested on the feet, but if there were to be a takedown I see Weidman being the one to get it.

The pick: Weidman has an excellent chin, great cardio and the wrestling ability to keep the fight standing and potentially take Jacare down. I see Weidman getting the decision nod in this one.

Chris Weidman risking 3.4 units to win 2 units

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Marcos Rogerio (+250) vs. Adam Wieczorek

Marcos Rogerio is nothing if he's not consistent. The Sao Paulo native is going to go balls to the wall from the second the bell rings until he either knocks his opponent out or he runs out of cardio and folds like a lawn chair. He is an athletic and explosive kickboxer and is capable of pulling off the odd submission if it presents itself but his main priority is always to swing for the fences.

Wieczorek has a crafty submission game as he was able to show in his last fight by pulling off one of the few omoplata submissions in UFC history after being dominated for a couple of rounds. 

As a striker, Wieczorek won't instill fear into very many of his opponents. He has a very vanilla style and there isn't much athleticism or explosiveness to be found in anything he does on the feet. 

I see there being two likely outcomes to this fight. The first is that Rogerio comes in with his heavy leg kicks, puts Wieczorek on the defensive and gets the TKO/KO finish. The second is that Wieczorek weathers the early storm, gets Rogerio tired and gets a submission finish.

I was very surprised to see the odds on this fight so high as I see it as a pick em type of fight. At +250 I have no problem pulling the trigger on Pezao.

The pick: Marcos Rogerio 1 unit to win 2.5 units

Parlay:
Israel Adesanya (-330) over Derek Brunson
Sijara Eubanks (-530) over Roxanne Modafferi
Julio Arce (-365) over Sheymon Moraes

Risking 2 units to win 2 units

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